Generative AI in music is reaching a Napster-level inflection point. But unlike the 2000s, the industry is moving quickly to formalize rules, strike licensing deals, and define ownership instead of trying to stop the technology. Major labels like Warner Music are settling lawsuits and signing deals with leading AI music platforms like Suno and Udio. These deals are laying the groundwork for a new market and nudging the U.S. Copyright Office to tighten up its definitions.
Josh Collum, VP of Music at licensing platform Soundstripe, is at the forefront of this new era. Prior to his current role, Collum founded Sorted Noise, a globally-respected sync agency known for placing music in major TV hits like Breaking Bad, Mad Men, and Glee, as well as major campaigns for Google, Chase, DKNY, and IKEA. Outside of his executive roles, Collum co-founded The Other Nashville Society, a 2,000+ member community dedicated to connecting and amplifying the city's diverse, non-country music scene.
"GenAI is the next Napster. The difference is I see the music industry playing ball this time. These lawsuits are going to get settled, and what comes out of that is going to define who owns what and how all of this gets licensed," Collum says. With the legal ground rules being set, a new financial playbook is being written. The expected absence of iconic catalogs from superstars like Whitney Houston and U2 in AI training models leaves a massive opening for independent artists.
- Behind the scenes: For these first movers, AI is being reframed as a potentially lucrative source of revenue, with money coming from both upfront fees for catalog access and back-end royalties. Collum predicts this will reframe AI adoption for many artists, turning it from a public creative statement into a private financial decision. "We'll probably see a lot of rights holders putting their catalogs into these models privately while publicly talking about how it's the end of the world. On the back end, they're actually participating."
In addition to creating new revenue streams, the rise of AI music is fueling a cultural rebound effect that is making human music more valuable. That preference for human-made music already shows signs of becoming a clear market trend. At Soundstripe, Collum says briefs from brands now ask for imperfections and an obvious human element, seeking out music that can't come from a prompt.
- The human premium: From Bandcamp banning purely AI-generated music to artists' estates demanding royalties from AI-cloned viral hits, there's a wider industry push to protect and differentiate human creation. "The most encouraging impact of GenAI is the rebound effect it’s creating, which will make human-made music more interesting and valuable," says Collum. "We’re moving toward a future where the distinction between a human-made song and a generative AI song will be made clear. It will be labeled. It's important that we have those two distinct lanes set aside for us."
- More than a feeling: The emerging answer from the market is that the value is the "someone." This human premium stems from the core belief that true art is a conduit for a shared experience, a connection Collum says is instinctual. "The inspiration for a song comes from a human moment. That's the genesis of the song. As humans, we feel that when we hear it. There's a magic to it, an instinctual connection where we just know if something has come from another human experience."
The future of this new market hinges on the legal dominoes already in motion. For Collum, the path forward is clear: it begins with resolving the conflicts that will create the rulebook for how AI and music coexist. "The thing to watch is how these lawsuits get settled," he concludes. "What will come from those is the U.S. Copyright Office putting meat on the bone with their definitions around what is copyrightable. Right now, they're being very vague, and other governing entities around the world are waiting for them to establish the rules first. I think this year all of those things will be settled, and then it's off to the races on attribution, deal models, and eventually, newfound revenue."